A new reality: after the Internet of Things comes the Internet of Everything

I was sent an article today about the Internet of Everything (I0E).  This term was new to me.  I'd heard of the Internet of Things (IoT) of course, where physical objects that contain technology can be accessed through the internet - basically the emphasis is on machine to machine.  The IoE goes further than just objects.  It is the intelligent connection between people (through smartphones, tablets and PCs), data, processes and things.

Basically the IoE builds on top of the IoT because billions of objects will have sensors that will measure and assess their status. The IoE is driven by the development of IP-enabled devices and the increase in global broadband availability. This will impact business in new ways:

• Business processes - technology will improve products, services and processes
• Business models - as companies digitize products and processes more transformational changes will happen.  Examples of this are the sensors in Nike clothing now being able to play a part in healthcare, and Google getting involved in self-driving cars because sensors can detect objects and relate them to maps.
• Business Moments - all these objects that contains sensors will generate real-time data, which can be collected, analyzed and stored.  Privacy and security concerns may well increase.

A great quote from the article is from Dave Aron of Gartner:

Digital is not an option, not an add-on, and not an afterthought; it is the new reality that requires a comprehensive digital leadership.

The IoE was listed as a top trend by Gartner last year.  The prediction is that businesses will soon be making extensive use of IoE technology.  Products that will be impacted by this include medical devices, factory automation, robotics, and infrastructure monitoring systems (roads, railway, water, electricity).  Cisco predict that the IoE is a $19 trillion global opportunity, mostly for private-sector firms.

Are you ready for the IoE?  What opportunities and threats do you think we need to consider?

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Future work skills and the future of education

I'm moving this week an having a good sort out, and while doing this I came across 2 articles that I had put on the coffee table some time ago and meant to get to but never did.  This post is about these 2 articles.

The first one is from KnowledgeWorks and is entitled Glimpses of the Future of Education  (click here to see the infographic that has been created about future learning - the graphic to the top left of this post is a small part of this infographic).  KnowledgeWorks has studied future trends for the past 10 years and predicts deep disruption for education.  One forecast is that learning is going to diversity leading to a flexible and radically personalized learning ecosystem that meets the needs of all learners.  The new ecosystem will include building relationships with museums, libraries and other cultural institutions enabling learners to move seamlessly across many kinds of learning experiences and providers.  Learning will therefore no longer be simply defined by time or place but can be designed to include individualized "learning playlists", with formative assessment leading to the approaches being tailored to each learner.  Formative assessment will use digital tools to collect rich data about what will be the most effective strategies for success.  In this scenario educators' jobs will diversity, with new roles emerging to support learning ("teacherpreneurs").  Virtual learning communities will also be part of this infrastructure, leading to more diverse forms of credentials, certificates and reputation markers.

The second article that I've been meaning to blog about for some time is simply entitled Future Work Skills 2020 from the Institute for the Future and the University of Phoenix Research Institute.  The report is around 4 years old, but still very relevant to consider when thinking about how close we are now to 2020.   Here the six drivers of change are seen as extreme longevity which leads to an ageing population that will work long beyond 65 with multiple careers (and so will need to be lifelong learners), the rise of smart machines and systems, a new media ecology, a computational world, superstructed organizations and a globally connected world.  At the same time that these factors are causing change, there are new skills that are in demand - in particular the sorts of skills that can't be done by machines.   These skills are:

1. Sense making - the ability to determine deeper meaning or significance of what is being expressed.
2. Social intelligence - the ability to connect to others in a deep and direct way, to sense and stimulate reactions and desired interactions.
3. Novel and adaptive thinking - coming up with solutions and responses beyond those that are rote or rule based.
4. Cross-cultural competency - in particular linguistic and an ability to sense and respond to new contexts.
5. Computational thinking skills - the ability to translate vast amounts of data into abstract concepts and to understand data-based reasoning.
6. New-media literacy - the ability to critically assess and develop content that uses new media forms and to leverage these media for persuasive communication.  The next generation of workers need to be fluent in forms such as video and to be comfortable creating and presenting their own visual information.
7. Transdisciplinary - understanding concepts across multiple disciplines.
8. A design mindset
9. Cognitive load management - social filtering to allow the more relevant information to rise above " the noise", and understanding how to maximize cognitive functioning using a variety of tools and techniques.
10. Virtual collaboration - the ability to work productively as a member of a virtual team.

According to the report, the sort of education that needs to be in place to promote these skills has to change.  There should be additional emphasis on developing critical thinking skills and analysis, and new-media literacy should be integrated throughout the curriculum.  Experiential learning is becoming more important, and that gives prominence to soft skills such as collaboration.  In addition there needs to be more focus on continuing education into adulthood.  More emphasis should be given to interdisciplinary training that allows students to develop skills and knowledge in a range of subjects.   

When I look at the list of 10 skills needed for the 2020 workforce I can see some schools are embracing them more than others.  Programmes such as the PYP are transdisciplinary in nature, and assessments are designed to show understanding, rather than simply factual recall.  In recent years at ASB we have also seen the introduction of design thinking in many different areas of the curriculum.  However 2020 is only 5 years away.  One of the things that these reports has made me realize is that the changes that need to happen to get our students ready for the workplace of 2020 are still long overdue.

Future Forwards Volume 4

Today ASB published the next volume of Future Forwards.  The online edition is available at this link. Future Forwards is a collection of thoughts, hypotheses, discussions, and reflections on practices, research and ideas that are relevant to emerging new paradigms of teaching and learning.

Paradigms - Looking to the Future
These chapters are about paradigm shifts - different approaches that radically challenge established conventions. Here you will find chapters on experimenting with drones, creating an app to support French language learning, exploring a walking workstation in school, yoga and meditation for adolescent decision-making, and creativity and innovation.

Ideas - The Next Step
These chapters are about how current research is changing or impacting existing practices or established norms. In this section you can read about engineering design and the STEM crisis, improving reading for English language learners, and Day 9 prototyping

Practices - Innovating in the Now
These chapters describe the application of an instructional practice in a completely novel way or the successful mash-up of different practices. In this section you will read about designing for environmental sustainability, the journey to standards-based assessment and reporting, problem solving (the Global Social Entrepreneurship Summit), using technology and analyzing data as key assessment, making and tinkering in the PYP, Community and Social Responsibility (CSR): a model for 21st century learning, inquiry in Kindergarten, iPad apps for creation in Early Childhood, using student data profiles to visualize student success in the Middle School, improving the world (the Technology, Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Summit) and finally a chapter written by my colleague Sharon Brown and myself on coaching your colleagues about our Technology Integration Coaching programme.

These eBooks are completely free - enjoy and please consider sharing them with others in your professional network.

If you missed the earlier volumes, here are the links:

·        Future Forwards Volume 1

·        Future Forwards Volume 2

·        Future Forwards Volume 3

What will the world of 2028 look like?

First of all I would like to wish a very Happy New Year to my readers (694,555 of you as of today). Secondly, all regular readers will know that one of the things I've been blogging about over the past year is the future - what it will look like and how it will impact education.  Here is one perspective from St Paul's School.

Reading and thinking about the frontiers in education

This is the 5th in a series of posts about the things I’ve been thinking about and blogging about in 2014. Working at a school like ASB that is so focused on the future, and being part of its R&D team means it’s inevitable that I will be doing a lot of reading about trends that are going to impact education. I already wrote a post about the big world trends such as population increase and distribution that will be likely to impact schools and universities, but now I’m going to write about technologies that are starting to be adopted in schools. Each year I look forward to reading the Horizon Reports, and this year there were also two new reports that focused on different regions of the world. Here is a quick run-through of the trends, identified in the reports, that I thought were worth thinking deeper about.

Higher Education
The Horizon Report for Higher Education usually comes out at the start of the year. I’m always interested to see whether any of the trends that are identified for universities are also being seen in schools. For example many universities are starting to use online environments as part of their courses - and content is being made more dynamic and accessible to increasingly larger numbers of students through MOOCs. For a number of years, schools, too, are seeing students engaging in online courses. The Horizon Report notes that "there is a growing interest in developing tools and algorithms for revealing patterns inherent in data and then applying them to the improvement of instructional systems”. Online learning is a good source of data which can be used by teachers to modify and individualize learning in both schools and universities as technology can help detect patterns of students' successes and failures. Combining data driven analytics and online learning can lead to courses catering to all types of learning styles, leading to more student success.

Universities also face challenges from the rise of social media in learning - these challenges are due to the low digital fluency of university faculty. Yet social networks are continuing to grow and educators need to be sharing links about what is being studied in class with students. The report states that social learning is a key skill for teachers, but notes that while digital media literacy continues to rise in importance in every discipline and profession, very little training is given in digital literacy skills and techniques.

K-12 Education
The Horizon Report for K-12 Education is released mid-year. This year, in addition to some of the trends common to universities, there are some other trends that appear to be more specific to schools, the first of which involves rethinking the roles of teachers in using technology for delivering content, assessing students, collaborating with other teachers, and documenting and reporting on student work. Nowadays many teachers are engaging in professional development using online tools and social media to build learning communities and develop resources. In addition there has been a shift towards deeper learning with students becoming more actively involved in project or challenge based learning and more emphasis on real world application. Flipped learning is becoming more common as teachers are using both the physical and virtual learning environment to extend or rearrange the learning day - with the internet being used to access learning materials at home followed by collaborative group work and project based work at school, where students tackle complex problems and learn how to communicate their findings effectively. We talk a lot at ASB about keeping education relevant. With a number of alternatives growing to formal schooling, the Horizon Report authors argue that schools must rethink the value of education from a student’s perspective, and consider what they provide that cannot be got in any other way - possibly this will involve a consideration of how important it is for students to socialize and participate in extra curricular activities that enrich their minds and bodies.

International Schools and different trends in education in Asia and Europe
In June, when the full Horizon Report K-12 report was published I started considering how these trends are impacting (or, in many cases, have already impacted) education at ASB. BYOD, cloud computing, games and gamification and learning analytics were all identified as important developments coming in the future to schools, though these are already in place at ASB. In October two new Horizon Reports were issued for the first time: one using data from international schools in Asia and the other based on what is happening in schools in Europe. The report on Asian international schools considered sixty different technologies that are likely to become important to international schools in Asia over the coming five years. Cloud computing and mobile apps have already reached mainstream use in many schools, and international schools in Asia are seen as leading the way with creating their own cloud networks to increase access to content from mobile devices. Learning analytics are around 2-3 years away from widespread adoption in Asian international schools, though some individual schools are currently using this technology in the pilot phase.

Makerspaces are technologies being adopted in the near term in Asian international schools though in other regions of the world this has been slower to make an impact on education. Games and gamification are also listed as technologies that all schools will adopt, though the international schools in Asia appear to be incorporating this into school curriculums several years ahead of other world regions.

Another trend that has been identified by international schools in Asia is the shift from students as consumers to students as creators. Rather than learners demonstrating their knowledge of a subject by taking tests and writing papers, they are increasingly being encouraged to create video reflections and bring their creative ideas to life by making new products. As a result, school leaders in Asia are starting to rethink their physical spaces and how the school day is structured to promote more critical thinking and creativity.

On the other hand, the Horizon Report for Europe identifies 2 other major trends as being imminent in schools in Europe: the changing role of teachers as a result of technology and the impact of social media. European schools see students' low digital competence as being a major challenge, in particular when it comes to actively participating in the design of learning activities. The more widespread use of cloud and tablet computing, however, are seen as being the drivers of change.

This year I’ve been interested to explore these trends, along with possible reasons for there being differences in international and national schools, as well as in different regions of the world. For me keeping relevant is the most important thing that educators should be discussing - and let’s hope that these discussions continue to influence education in 2015 too.

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Ways technology will change education

At our last R&D team meeting we were in small groups discussing the following question:  Given all you know about the changes in the world, what should learning and  education look like in 2030?  

As I was thinking about this, a friend on Facebook shared an article by Terry Heick about different ways technology will change education by 2028.  I'm sharing some of my favourite points from this as I'm thinking about the question asked in the R&D meeting:

By 2018

• Digital literacy begins to outpace academic literacy in some classrooms
• Purely academic standards (such as Common Core) will start to decline.  Educators seek curriculum based not on content but on the ability to interact, self-direct and learn.  Institutionally-centred artifacts of old-age academia will lose credibility.
• Visual data will replace numerical data as schools communicate learning to family and community.

By 2020

• Cloud-based education will be the rule - with better aggregation of student metrics, more efficient data sharing and more visual assessment results.
• Schools will function as think-tanks to address local and global challenges
• Diverse learning forms begin to supplement school
• Self-directed learning studios for families

By 2024

• Learning simulations will begin to replace teaches in some eLearning environments
• Personalized learning algorithms will be standard in schools that continue with a traditional academic learning approach.
• Diverse learning forms begin to replace schools.
• Schools we be outnumbered by eLearning, blended learning and self-directed learning as well as learning simulations in virtual worlds.
• Newer certificates of achievement and performance that are social, portfolio-based and self-selected will begin to replace institutional certificates including college degrees.

In an educational system where many think not much has changed since the Industrial Age, it seems there are some very radical changes predicted for the coming 10 years.  What do you think?  Which ones do you agree with?  Which ones do you think are complete fantasies?

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Trends

Yesterday I posted my thinking about coaching and how it has developed over the past year. Today I’m going to write about another change that has happened at school this year - this time in R&D. I’m a member of ASB’s Research and Development core team. The members on this group have worked together over a number of years in small task forces looking at developments that will be coming up in education several years into the future, and prototyping and preparing the school for these. We have looked at various initiatives such as a new school calendar, mobile learning, PBL, gamification, intersessions and internships to name just a few. This year we have seen a change. As our current task force work has been coming to an end, we’ve started to look more towards the “far horizon” at the big trends that are happening in the world - and although on the face of it some of these have nothing to do with education, indirectly they are going to make a huge impact on it. This post is about these changes.

The first change I started to read and think about was population. This is a complex issue because some parts of the world are seeing an ageing population, while others are seeing an expanding youth. There are therefore likely to be 2 different impacts on education - a growing wave of retired “lifelong learners” in some areas of the world, where the challenge is going to be getting enough people into the workforce to support them, and a huge number of young people in other parts of the world who will need schools, universities and will possibly face the issue of youth unemployment. Another challenge is that today’s majorities will become tomorrow’s minorities. This could well impact education too - with more need to educate students for being sensitive to and tolerant of diversity in the world. Technology has a part to play here too - but sadly the very technologies that are being used to transfer information around the world are also being used to spread intolerance and hatred.

Population is going to have another impact on education too - simply because of the growth of population is going to lead to more pressure on food production, global warming, access to water, the spread of diseases and so on. Current trends show that the gap between the rich and the poor is widening, despite the fact that governments around the world have set the goal of reducing poverty. Poverty determines the number of children who do not attend school (because they are doing other things). The figures from the UN show that 10 years ago over 100 million children were not receiving even an elementary education - most of these were in Africa and south Asia and there was a much higher proportion of girls who did not attend school than boys. This is a vicious circle because without education there is little chance to breaking out of the cycle of poverty. Poverty limits education, and a lack of education leads to an increase in poverty, which in turn could lead to frustration, anger and instability. The generation of students in our schools today will be the ones making the decisions about destroying or saving our world - so it's important to consider what education they are getting to help them deal with these issues in the future, and to help the next generation of policy makers understand that both common threats and common opportunities can bring us together for a common purpose.

This brings me onto the next trend - the need to educate students to be creative and innovative, to be problem solvers and critical thinkers - yet are today’s education systems encouraging such thinkers? Although many in education call for more creativity and innovation, at the same time many schools are focusing on an increasingly narrow range of skills that can be tested. Conversely, in the international schools where I've taught, there has been a move away from summative assessment and towards formative assessment. Teachers are concerned about knowing what students are finding difficult as it helps to inform their practice and planning - there has been a shift from the assessment of learning to assessment for and assessment as learning and a movement towards giving students choices about the ways they show their understanding - away from a cookie cutter approach where all students are expected to do the same thing. More and more teachers are asking whether the move towards standardized tests prepares students for the future or simply freezes the students in the "traditional" status quo.

The ability of schools to attract outstanding educators is crucial to the future. Worldwide there is still a shortage of teachers and school administrators and one possible reason is that teaching salaries are not competitive with salaries of other professions that require the same level of academic preparation. So at the same time that more good teachers are needed, there is increasing competition for these people from other industries. How can we change this? Can we look at the big trends in the world and the needs they are creating, and help this to leverage governments to invest in a more professional teaching body? To me, thinking about these big global trends, it seems that education is the only thing that can turn today’s challenges into opportunities.

(A lot of the ideas contained in this blog post are the result of reading 2 books by Gary Marx this year:
21 Trends for the 21st Century
16 Trends:  their profound impact on our future)

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A Center for Life-long (Transdisciplinary) Learning

This week at ASB we hosted 2 candidates for the Assistant Superintendent position for next school year.  One of the areas that will fall under the new position is to imagine and create a center for life-long learning.  This will involve the development of alternative and innovative educational paths for anytime-anywhere learning.  ASB has already started on this journey.  We already have service learning programmes, year round educational experiences such as internships and intersessions, and online learning for students, teacher and parents.

In his book Twenty-One Trends for the 21st Century, one of the issues Gary Marx writes about is the depth, breadth and purposes of education in a fast-changing world.  He, like the leadership of ASB, asks "What are the purposes of education?"  At a recent State of the School meeting with parents this question was raised by our Superintendent.  Traditionally we say that education should prepare students for the future.  The question that Craig Johnson asked was "What future?"  Are we preparing students for their future here at ASB?  For their future in another school, as our students' families are highly mobile?  For their future at university?  For their life?

Gary Marx points out that when asked this question, John Dewey's response was that a teacher should provoke "a continuous interest in learning throughout a student's life" and yet what we find today around the world is national curriculums with narrow standards and high-stake tests that mean that what is important to learn has been whittled down to the things that are easily testable.  The impact of this is that many key, creative, subjects such as music and art as well as foreign languages, science, social studies and PE are getting less and less time.  Marx writes, "We are too often faced with the prospect of preparing our students for the future - constrained by a mentality and infrastructure that emerged from another time." and proposes 5 different purposes for education:

• Citizenship - creating good citizens
• Employability
• Interesting lives
• Releasing ingenuity that is already there
• Stimulating imagination, creativity and inventiveness.

Yesterday and today our Twitter PYP chat was about transdisiplinary learning.  As always it was great to have a discussion with so many educators about this.  Reflecting on our conversations, I noticed that Marx is also a proponent of learning across disciplines.  He writes, "It's in those multidisciplinary white spaces, in the connective tissue, that we are likely to discover new knowledge.  Teaching and learning across disciplines should be considered part of how we operate."

Is this how the new center of life-long learning is going to operate at ASB?  Looking at ASB's website we already pride ourselves on being a center of learning for students, educators and thought leaders from around the world, in an environment where all members are constantly in pursuit of personal and professional growth and development.  In addition we are building global communities of learners and researchers through sharing data, content, tools and ideas with colleagues and schools around the world.  ASB also hosts a range of educational conferences and learning events, from our Maker Saturdays, TRAI Summits, Global Social Entrepreneurship Summits and TEDx ASB events for students, to conferences such as ASB Un-Plugged, Future Forwards, InspirED and the Google Summits for educators from India and around the world.  

Last weekend I was involved in the Teacher Training Program at ASB.  Our Mission calls on us to "enhance the lives of others" and this is one way I feel I can give back to the Indian community.  The TTP is a 2 year program for Indian teachers who are working in partner NGOs.  The program is taught by ASB staff and introduces to Indian teachers new ideas and critical skills for teaching in the 21st century. 

Our journey towards becoming a center for life-long learning has begun.  I'm interested to see who is the person who will be taking us forward.

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Interdependence

Last year I read a book by Gary Marx about 16 Trends that will have a profound impact on our future.  Marx now has a new book out called 21 Trends for the 21st Century and we are reading this on R&D and focusing on 6 trends:

• International/Global - Trend: International learning, including relationships, cultural understanding, languages, and diplomatic skills will become basic.  Isolationist Independence ⇄ Interdependence
• Technology Trend: Ubiquitous, interactive technology will shape how we live, how we learn, how we see ourselves and how we relate to the world. Macro → Micro → Nano → Subatomic
• Jobs and Careers Trend: Pressure will grow for society to prepare people for jobs and careers that may not currently exist. Career Preparation ⇄ Employability and Career Adaptability
• Personalization Trend: In a world of diverse talents and aspirations, we will increasingly discover and accept that one size does not fit all. Standardization → Personalization
• Ingenuity Trend: Releasing ingenuity and stimulating creativity will become primary responsibilities of education and society. Information Acquisition → Knowledge Creation
• Education Trend: The breadth, depth, and purposes of education will constantly be clarified to meet the needs of a fast changing world Narrowness → Breadth and Depth

I have written about a number of these trends before, but my group is going to focus on the first one which is away from isolationism and towards interdependence.   This trend is definitely impacted by technology because technology makes it possible for people to work together even though they are physically separated around the world.  One things that really struck me about this trend was the importance NOT on the STEM subjects, which you hear so much about these days, but about how language acquisition and "global competency" will be increasingly important - and the subjects Marx mentions in particular are history and geography as well as languages (being a history and geography graduate and with both my children studying these subjects at university, you can imagine how delighted I was to read this!)

Educating children from a global perspective is essential for them to be able to be productive in a global economy, and interestingly it is not really up to schools to provide this instruction.  Language learning in particular is mentioned as something that is happening outside of formal education through computer software and specific language and cultural training by companies whose employees will be living and working abroad.

Marx writes about population trends and how these people are becoming more connected using social media.  He points out that demonstrations that at one time would have remained fairly localized, haev now led to revolutions, stirred up and directed using social media.   Population itself will increase to over 9 billion by 2050, though this growth is not evenly distributed.  Huge population growth in Africa and Asia will be matched by a decrease of population in other areas such as Europe.  Economic growth rates vary too:  less developed countries will grow by 60%, the more developed countries by less than 5%.

Marx writes about 4 emerging globalization trends:

• economic integration - mostly trade and foreign investment
• technological connectivity - through the internet
• personal contact - as people travel more
• political engagement - memberships in international organizations, treaties and so on

International relations can also be broken down into different areas:

• relationships among governments - either because of war/peace or because of environmental concerns
• business relationships - mostly trade
• educational and scientific relationships - sharing of information and research
• personal relationships - stimulated by travel and social media

Marx writes this these trends will lead to the following issues:

• balancing of international competition with international collaboration - education may make some countries "more competitive" but this needs to be balanced with collaboration to tackle the needs of the planet such as developing renewable sources of energy and protecting the environment
• the brain drain and the brain gain
• global challenges and opportunities - energy, environment, water, poverty, terrorism, pandemics, war and peace

Along with the growth of world population will be the growth of mega-cities.  By 2030 the world's urban population will be 5 billion and 60% of these will be under the age of 18 (so consider the effect this will have on education!).  Mega-cities of over 10 million people will probably reach almost 40 by 2025, with 21 of these mega-cities in Asia.  This has led to what Marx describes as the "urbanization of poverty" with marginalization, violence and sub-standard housing along with opportunities for growth and advancement.

On R&D we are focused on how these trends will impact education.  To start with Marx writes that the urgent of international/global learning will grow exponentially and that schools and colleges will be expected to strengthen their international/global education programmes.  Students will need to understand that both common threats and common opportunities can bring us together for a common purpose.  The curriculum should include the building blocks for international/global education - as mentioned earlier these include languages, geography and history, but also a knowledge of international relations, diplomatic skills and cultural understanding, communication skills, civic education, conflict resolution, thinking, reasoning and problem solving skills, the appropriate use of technology and so on.  I was interested to read that attracting and keeping multinational businesses with require an lot of support, including excellent schools and colleges and an interesting and high quality of life.  For an international teacher that is certainly a good thing to read.

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16 Trends: # 16 the demand for teachers

This series of 16 trends, based on the work of Gary Marx, finishes with the trend that is closest to my heart - the increasing demand for teachers in the face of competition for those very "knowledge workers" in other industries.  The ability of schools to attract outstanding educators is crucial to the future.  Worldwide there is still a shortage of teachers and school administrators and one possible reason is that teaching salaries are not competitive with salaries of other professions that require the same level of academic preparation.  So at the same time that more teachers are needed, there is increasing competition for these people from other industries.

Attracting teachers is not enough - as well as recruitment there needs to be retention.  Of all my friends who started teaching with me in the 1980s, none of them is still teaching full time in schools.  How can schools convince teachers to stay?  Statistics point to about half of all new teachers leaving the profession within 5 years.  I've also noticed a large interest in teachers deciding to move internationally to search for work.

I'm reflecting on my own experience.  I've had a number of positions where I've stayed for 3-4 years at a school and one where I stayed for 16 years.  What made that one different?  First of all I think I loved the sense of school community and of being part of an institution that was moving forward.  Secondly I think that professional development was a factor in keeping me at the school.  I loved the growth mind-set.  I loved the way that the school brought in world experts and sent us to international conferences where we could learn more and become even better at what we did.  Above all, I think, I loved the sense that I was valued, that the school would invest in me, and that the school would allow me to follow my own interests and passions.

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16 Trends: # 15 from preparation to adaptability

When I first started teaching in the 1980s I spent quite a lot of time talking to my high school students about getting ready for the world of work.  Society expects that schools will turn out students who are employable - and yet with a rapidly changing job market this can be difficult to do.  One thing we do know, however, is that the future will be multidisciplinary - whole new industries are coming into being by combining various disciplines and industries such as bioinformatics and telematics are ones that didn't exist several years ago.  There is increasing competition for well-educated and flexible people, who can trade in their old skills for new (for example librarians becoming cybrarians).

We are also becoming more mobile.  People are easily able to work from home.  I have started teaching online courses as well as face to face ones, for example.  I can carry my "office" with me wherever I go and last year even tried running an online course from my mobile phone while holidaying in Goa.

Trends 1 and 2 looked a population.  With an aging population there are shifts in students, workers and jobs.  Retired people in their "third age" are just as likely to want to pursue education, or second careers.  An elderly population will also place more demand on several caring and medical professions.  Some weeks ago we looked at What If scenarios in an R&D meeting.  One question that was asked was this:

What if ASB was Pre-K through Life, instead of Pre-K through Grade 12?

An interesting question, especially in the light of schools and colleges becoming centres for continuing education, training and re-training.

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16 Trends: # 14 poverty

Living in India I'm closer to poverty than almost anywhere I've lived before.  In the neighbourhood next to my home there are people who live on the streets and are really destitute.  Yesterday I was reading statistics that show that almost half the world's population is living on less than $2 a day, and over a billion people are living on less than $1 a day.  The gap between rich and poor is getting bigger, despite the fact that governments around the world have set the goal of reducing poverty.  One issue (as mentioned in trends 1 and 2) is that the world's population is getting bigger.  In fact the % of people living on less than a dollar a day is around 15% of the world - this % has fallen in recent years - but because the population of the world has grown, the absolute numbers of those living in poverty remains the same.

Let's think about how this affects education.  Poverty determines the number of children who do not attend school (because they are doing other things).  The figures from the UN show that 10 years ago over 100 million children were not receiving even an elementary education - most of these were in Africa and south Asia and there was a much higher proportion of girls who did not attend school than boys.  This is a vicious circle because without education there is little chance to breaking out of the cycle of poverty.  Poverty limits education, and a lack of education leads to an increase in poverty, which in turn could lead to frustration, anger and instability.  The essence of this is that poverty makes us all poor.  Let's hope that people and governments become aware of this trend - and that they have the will and the resources to tackle it.

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16 Trends: #13 the search for meaning and balance

Trend 13 is about the way that people are seeking more personal meaning in their lives in response to an intense, high-tech, always-on, fast-moving society.  This reminds me of balanced, one of the IB Learner Profiles.  Balanced people understand the importance of intellectual, physical and emotional balance and the part they play in well-being for both themselves and others.

Daniel Pink writes about how autonomy, mastery and purpose are what motivates us, and we are constantly hearing about how people are searching for meaning and purpose in their lives.  Sometimes this can be looking outwards to help others, other times this may involve looking inwards to personal relationships.  People are discovering that money and possessions don't make them happy and that meaning or purpose is more difficult to find than material possessions.

A couple of weekends ago my husband and I, along with several Middle and High School ASB students, took part in a Habitat for Humanity build in a small village about 3 hours away from Mumbai.  Although this came at a very busy time for us (and right before ASB Un-Plugged for me) it was really satisfying to do this volunteer work.  Helping to improve the lives of others is part of ASB's Mission Statement.  Interestingly enough ASB recognizes the importance of balance too.  One of our Core Values is this:

• A balanced lifestyle is the essence of well-being.

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16 Trends: # 11 and 12 International Mindedness

The management of our diversity is critical to our future.  If we manage it well it will enrich us.  If we don't manage it well it will divide us.  - Gary Marx

The IBO has an idea of the type of students it hopes will graduate from its schools: the kind of student who "in the struggle to establish a personal set of values will be laying the foundation upon which international-mindedness will develop and flourish."  One of the ways that international-mindedness can be encouraged to develop is to "provide students with opportunities for learning about issues that have local, national and global significance, leading to an understanding of human commonalities."

Trend 11 considers the movement from narrowness to open-minded.  Gone are the days of sole superpowers and a bipolar world - now countries are more likely to see themselves as interdependent and understand the need, therefore to join together to take on the challenges and opportunities that are facing everyone on the planet.  Schools can contribute to this in a small way too.  In our recent Tech Audit I've been talking to teachers about the NETS-S Standard 2C which encourages teachers to use technology tools to develop cultural understanding and global awareness through engaging with learners of other cultures.  This could involve a classroom to classroom exchange of stories and information about their lives, communities and culture through blogs, email, video chats and so on, eventually leading to working on global collaborative projects.

Trend 12 looks at further at the movement away from isolationism and independence and towards interdependence.  It notes the strengthening of relationships between governments in areas such as peace-keeping, environmental issues and human rights.  The business community is also seeing the advantages of coming together to develop, sell or purchase products and services.  In the scientific and educational worlds we are seeing huge face to face and virtual conferences as well as many smaller projects to share information, conduct research and "meeting" to discuss areas of interest, for example in Twitter chats.  In this way I have built many personal relationships with teachers around the world whom I have never met, but whom I interact with regularly.  Scientists and educators alike see the need for working together to advance scientific discoveries or to share educational knowledge and expertise.

Gary Marx writes that in the future: "Growing numbers of people will live and work outside their home country, hold a job with a multinational organization, have their lives affected by social or economic conditions in another part of the world, or realize they can only be successful by working with people from many different cultures and who are different from themselves."  He goes on to argue that students who leave school without some grounding in international education may turn out to be the new disadvantaged.

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16 Trends: # 10 threats or opportunities?

Recently our Grade 3 students engaged in a Project Based Learning unit to try to answer the question will Mumbai run out of water?  Access to clean water is a huge issue here - in many apartments the water tanks are filled up once a day and people have access to water for a limited number of hours.  As I've thought about water, it reminded me of a presentation I went to at an ECIS conference many years ago where an Swedish water expert (whose name I unfortunately can't remember) spoke to us about how future wars may well be fought over water.  At the time I thought she was exaggerating - now I'm not so sure!  It occurs to me that access to water is a very important issue for students to study - after all these students will be the politicians of the future, or maybe the scientists who will be working on solving some of these issues - they need to have some understanding of these global problems that may threaten our quality of life and even our survival in the not too distant future.

As discussed in Trends 1 and 2, population is increasing.  In the first half of this century (2000 - 2050) the population of the world will increase from around 6 billion to 9 billion - an increase of 50%.  All of these people will have needs and wants - and current trends show that the gap between the haves and have nots will increase.  More people will put more pressure on food production, global warming, access to water, the spread of diseases and so on, and at the same time more and more people and governments will have access to weapons that could wipe out the planet.  The generation of students in our schools today will be the ones making the decisions about destroying or saving our world - so it's important to consider what education they are getting to help them deal with these issues in the future - are they seeing these issues as threats or as opportunities?

Here's one example:  when I was in school most of the oil we used in the UK came from the Middle East.  During the 1970s, however, the price of oil increased so much that expensive and previously uneconomic sources, such as beneath the North Sea, became practical for drilling, and with more supply of oil the price dropped.  Since then wars have been fought over oil and countries invaded or corrupt regimes propped up to maintain access to oil.  It seems we can't do without it, and yet 200 years ago we didn't even know it existed or what we could do with it.  Now we hear the oil is rapidly running out - scientists are going to have to come up with news forms of energy.  This could be a problem when looked at one way, or it could be an opportunity when looked at from another perspective.  One thing is sure - we need to educate students to be creative and innovative, to be problem solvers and critical thinkers - one of today's students could well be the person who discovers a new source of energy that will become to the next generation what oil is to us today.  Are we encouraging such thinkers?

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16 Trends: #9 being ethical

Yesterday I was working with a group of teachers to develop a new unit of inquiry about beliefs and values.  We had a great discussion about what beliefs and values are and how they look to an 8 or 9 year old.  We decided a belief is something that we accept to be true or real and that values are what forms the basis for our ethical action.  We also discussed whether it is easier to describe what you believe or what you value, and whether it is easier to notice what someone else believes or what they value.

Ethics in fact are a sort of code of conduct - something that you do or don't do because of how you believe you should behave yourself, regardless of what is legal.  For example when I lived in Bangkok it was possible to buy pirated movies and CDs on the street - in fact it wasn't illegal to buy or sell them in Thailand.  However considering this I still discussed this with my children as I believed it was unethical to buy pirated copyrighted material.

In my role at school I'm often talking to students about digital citizenship, about digital rights and responsibilities especially when using media in their products - hopefully this allows students to think about the effects of their actions on others and the consequences of their own actions and come to understand the need for ethical behaviour.  Having these discussions at school will hopefully help students to make good choices when they face the ethical dilemmas of our our global world, for example in science and technology, development, business, finances and the environment.

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16 Trends: # 8 continuous improvement

I'm halfway through looking at the 16 trends that will impact education and society in the coming decades, and Trend 8 is one that is close to my heart.  There are schools that are striving for continuous improvement, and there are others that don't want to admit that they need to improve as this implies that they are not as good as they tell people they are.  Several times I've looked at websites or visited schools in person that claim they are excellent, outstanding and wonderful, but when you scratch the surface you see a very different picture.  They think they are successful and effective and so don't see the necessity for change.  My feeling is that I'd much rather work at a school that is always trying to do better, than one that tells me that it is already excellent and that this is as good as it gets.

Gary Marx writes "Continuous improvement should be be one of the prime values embedded in the culture ... a commitment to becoming even better tomorrow than we are today."  I think this is why I love working at ASB - I so often hear people saying "this is the best place I've ever worked - people know what they are doing, they care about quality and about people" and at the same time we are continually looking to see how we can do things better.  At the weekend we opened our doors to the world - and educators came from places as far away as Brazil, Australia and Europe.  At the end of the conference one of our visitors said to me: "Not many schools have the set up you do, if any."  At ASB people really go the extra mile - they are loyal and caring and committed and because of that we are able to offer a top quality experience.

Trend 8 is about the movement away from the status quo and towards continuous improvement.  Schools that aren't able to make this shift will fairly soon become obsolete.

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16 Trends: # 6 and 7 standardization -v- personalization

Many of the first trends that I've written about over the past week or so are not directly connected with education, however Trends 6 and 7 definitely are.  When I worked as a teacher in the UK there were some national tests (CSEs, O'Levels and A'Levels) but no standardized tests for students below the age of 16 since the abolition of the 11+ exam in the early 1970s.  Sometime after I left and became an international teacher, standardized tests were introduced, schools were put into league tables, and schools that didn't do well on tests and inspections ended up in something known as "special measures".  Schools, teachers and students were seen as failing if they didn't do well on tests and this led to narrowing down the curriculum (spending more time on reading, writing and math and less on subjects such as the arts) and teaching to the test.

At the same time, in the international schools where I've taught, there has been a move away from summative assessment and towards formative assessment.  Teachers are concerned about knowing what students are finding difficult as it helps to inform their practice and planning - there has been a shift from the assessment of learning to assessment for and assessment as learning and a movement towards giving students choices about the ways they show their understanding - away from a cookie cutter approach where all students are expected to do the same thing.  More and more teachers are asking whether the move towards standardized tests prepares students for the future or simply freezes the students in the "traditional" education system.  In countries like the UK and USA, where teachers are leaving the profession in huge numbers, questions have also been raised about whether the pressure to "perform" on standardized tests is driving talented teachers and administrators out of education and putting off young people who may be considering a career as a teacher.

Last year one of our goals at ASB was to personalize learning.  We know that students are unique and that a one-size-fits-all approach doesn't work best.  We are also aware that we want to encourage creative and innovative students, not just those who can give the right answer on tests.  As we discuss educating students to be future world leaders we know that rigid systems inhibit us - our students need to be flexible to be able to thrive in a changing information age - they need to move forward not by regurgitating the status quo but by creating new knowledge and solutions.

At school both last year and this year students have engaged in Curiosity Projects and Day 9 "passion projects".  Recently we've also discussed the importance of qualities such as persistence and resilience.  In schools that have adopted the PYP and MYP programmes I've also seen a move towards transdisciplinary, interdisciplinary and multiisciplinary learning where connections are seen as increasingly important.  The world needs creative and ingenious people and there are many examples of education systems that are valuing a more personal approach - however the general trend of the past few years has been towards more standardization.

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16 Trends: #5 shifting generations

On the header of this blog you will see the phrase "the future, now" which I added on some years ago as I thought about my aim of using technology to transform learning.  The future, now can also be applied to a group of people called the Millennials - the people who will be making up the governments of the world in around 30 - 40 years time.  The Millennials are in our education system now so it really is up to us to shape this future through the education we provide today. My generation (the Baby Boomers) will all be retired by 2030.  What changes are we likely to see as the power and influence and decision making shifts from the Baby Boomers to the Millennials?

The people of my generation have been influenced by many things - prolonged peace and generally stable economies.  We have seen space flights, moon landings and the civil rights and women's movements.  The Millennials have been influenced by different things:  a more multicultural society, a new world order and the rise of terrorism.  Things such as high speed computers and being able to communicate with anyone around the world at any time are normal to them.  This evening as I was skyping with my mother (who at 85 is part of the "Silent Generation") she asked if "phoning" from India to the UK was very expensive.  Using skype to her landline costs next to nothing, something she finds difficult to believe.  My Millennial son, on the other hand, really does use his mobile phone to call her, but with an unlimited data plan this costs nothing either.  Such things are hard for my mother to understand.

The book Sixteen Trends: Their Profound Impact on Our Future raises an interesting question:  do generations shape events, or do events shape generations?  My mother lived through the Great Depression of the 1930s and World War II in the UK with years of rationing and shortages.  This has made her especially frugal and something of a hoarder (she finds it hard to throw anything away!)  Growing up in the 1960s and 70s certainly influenced me too.  I became the first person in my entire family ever to go to university.  I'm curious to see how events are shaping this new generation that my son and daughter are in.  I've heard that events are leading to this generation becoming confident, sociable, moral, optimistic, accepting of diversity and civic minded.  Looking at my children I would say this is pretty accurate!

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16 Trends: #4 size and speed

Trend 4 is this:  technology will increase the speed of communication and the pace of advancement or decline.  Right at the start of the chapter on this trend is the amazing assertion that "80% of all the scientists who have ever lived in the history of humankind are alive today, and they are on the Internet."  I heard a similar statement from David Warlick this weekend that related to the spread of and access to knowledge - he said that he carries around in his back pocket the entire knowledge of the human race on his phone.  Technology is getting both smaller and faster and nanotechnology has been called the next revolution with a potentially huge effect on medicine, economic productivity and the earth's environment.

Let's take just one example.  On Thursday evening we hosted TEDxASB.  One of the presentations was a recording of Richard Resnick's talk about genome sequencing and its impact on healthcare. Today we can use gene sequencing as a diagnostic - and as a result we can expect to live longer.  Genetic modification will also allow us to grow more crops to feed this growing, longer living population.



Resnick talks about how in the future we will look back at cancer treatments and they will look like bloodletting. Craig Johnson, our Superintendent at ASB, took the same analogy and applied it to education - in the future will we look back at what we are doing in the classrooms today and be equally appalled?

There is also an ethical question here:  the technologies that can save and improve lives can also be used to destroy them.  The same technologies that can transfer information, can also be used to spread intolerance and hatred.  Schools have an important role to play in not only nurturing the future scientists who can develop the new technologies that our world needs, but also in promoting the digital ethics that our future world will need to use these technologies wisely and responsibly.

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